Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings box-office performance analysed (2024)

After Black Widow was released on Disney+ at the same time as its cinema release (causing quite a stir), Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings was released in a more traditional way.

Well, traditional-ish – while it was released in cinemas, it was only with a 45-day exclusivity window, rather than the industry standard of 90 days. Disney boss Bob Chapek had called the release an "interesting experiment", something that Simu Liu wasn't best pleased about.

But in a world that has become increasingly used to seeing simultaneous digital releases over the past year, Chapek was right in that releasing Shang-Chi solely in cinemas was an experiment of sorts.

It's not that Disney were the only ones doing this (F9 and A Quiet Place Part II, among others, were both exclusive releases), but Disney had started to favour a simultaneous Disney+ Premier Access release. They did it with the likes of Cruella and Jungle Cruise, so Shang-Chi was a way to see what difference releasing a movie solely in cinemas made.

So now that Shang-Chi has been out for two weeks, has the new strategy proven a hit at the box office? Let's delve into the numbers to find out.

The early signs are certainly promising for Shang-Chi as it has taken almost $260 million worldwide, with $147 million coming from the US box office. Its second weekend take of $34.1 million in the US is the best result since Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker in 2019.

Where other blockbusters such as Black Widow and F9 have had steep second weekend drops, Shang-Chi's 54% decline is comparable to what would have happened in 'normal' times for a big blockbuster.

Without any notable competition (in the US) until Venom: Let There Be Carnage on October 1, the movie is well-set to become the first $200 million grosser in the US since Bad Boys for Life hit that mark in March 2020. Overseas, Shang-Chi will have to compete with No Time to Die too, but it should still comfortably pass Black Widow ($373 million so far).

Disney were confident enough in the movie's performance to confirm exclusive cinema runs for the rest of its 2021 slate, even before the second weekend of release. That means Eternals, The King's Man and West Side Story won't be on Disney+ (or any other digital platform) until at least 45 days after their cinema release.

We speculated that Shang-Chi's box-office performance could be a key factor in this, but the speed of the decision would likely have surprised the industry. After all, we're still seeing major movies like Top Gun: Maverick pushed back to 2022.

It might not have just been Shang-Chi that convinced Disney that exclusive runs were worthwhile.

Free Guy has also had an excellent run, holding well week on week to gross $102 million at the US box office and $277 million worldwide. Like the Marvel movie, it was given a 45-day exclusive cinema run and has proven to be a big enough hit for Disney to confirm a sequel.

Both Jungle Cruise and Cruella have been given sequels after their simultaneous Disney+ release, so clearly they didn't disappoint Disney either. At the box office though, their global hauls of $197 million and $222 million, respectively, are perhaps not as big as they might have been if cinemas were the only way to see them.

It's arguably not a coincidence that the biggest Hollywood hit of the year has been F9 with $714 million worldwide, following its exclusive cinema release. Its China box-office bounty of $204 million certainly helped in that regard, but its strong performance highlighted that there's still the desire for people to see the latest movies on the big screen.

Disney releasing the likes of Cruella and Black Widow on Disney+ for an extra fee certainly didn't hurt those movies overall. However, it could be said to have affected their chances of enjoying a long box-office run when the option is there to watch it at home.

It will be important to remember the context of the marketplace that Shang-Chi was released in when all the dust has settled.

However the rest of its run pans out, it'll still end up among the lowest-grossing Marvel movies worldwide. The movie could pass Thor's $449 million result and has an outside shot of reaching Ant-Man's $519 million, although its potential lack of a China release could hurt Shang-Chi's chances.

It'll probably end up around the 20th highest-grossing MCU movie, although can take some comfort that it'll outgross Black Widow. So in the cold light of day, Shang-Chi might seem a bit of a flop in Marvel terms after we got used to regular $1 billion hits for the MCU. (Well, outside of the Ant-Man series, sorry Paul Rudd.)

But it'll be a while (probably) before we see another $1 billion smash at the box office, so the level of what makes a hit has shifted. For an untested character and a movie that largely avoids wider MCU connections, a result of potentially $500 million is absolutely a win for Shang-Chi.

And even if it doesn't reach that number, Shang-Chi can take comfort in knowing it led to a change in Disney's release strategy during one of the most uncertain times in cinema history.

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings is in cinemas now.